The Clifton Review  

The Clifton Review is a tri-weekly column that examines the question of the Clifton project along with the evolution of the war between two billionaires. We covered the start of this war with articles describing the battle over easement rights, the mysterious burning of a home, the blocks to rebuilding, and countless questionable court filings.

While the 2018 series salutes fashion mogul Peter Nygård’s Golden Jubilee detailing his rags to riches story, his incredible business success over these past fifty years and an inside look at how he did it, The Clifton Review will also continue to address current affairs as they relate to the good of The Bahamas.  

To Risk Or Not To Risk

By P.J. Malone 

“If you don’t risk anything, you risk everything.”

That’s a statement made by fashion mogul Peter Nygard, who throughout his 50-year business history has taken a number of risks that took the business he invested in from 800,000 fifty years ago to almost a billion today.

We know that taking risks is an important part of manybusiness decisions and even life decisions. In fact, most successful business people have likely taken big risks that resulted in them achieving what they did.

However, it’s not just about banishing your fear of the unknown and taking risks with whatever opportunity presents itself. Experts will tell you that the only risks that are advisable to take are what they call ‘calculated risks’.

So how does one know what’s considered a calculated risk?

Generally speaking, it involves weighing the advantages and disadvantages of a risky decision with respect to the possible losses and gains from it.

We make these types of decisions in our everyday lives all the time. We take calculated risks when we decide whether to speed or not to speed if you are late for work, for example.

You weigh the possibility of getting caught by the police and getting a speeding ticket with the consequences of getting to work late. In many cases, people tend to think that it is unlikely they will get caught by the police, and it is worth the risk to avoid a black mark on your work file, or whatever consequences may follow from arriving to worklate, especially if it’s a habit that they have.

But in business, the stakes are larger and there is so much more to lose than the cost of a speeding ticket or a black mark at work. In lots of cases, the stakes involve financial investments, livelihoods, and one’s future, and even that of one’s family.

Yet, in business risks are necessary; so it’s important to consider how to take calculated risks.

The first step in calculating risk for a business decision is to consider your level of fear because that can impact your assessment of the risk. In an Inc online magazine article, Author Amy Morin explained that fear causes you to overestimate risk and the absence of fear causes you to underestimate risk.

In her article “What Successful People Know About Taking Calculated Risks”, she states,

“Your level of fear usually has nothing to do with the actual level of risk you face.”

She gives the example of the no. 1 fear most people have, which is being afraid of public speaking: It isn’t risky; however, it is something most people avoid.

Conversely, when there is no fear due to your excitement over a new opportunity, you can underestimate the risk and overestimate your chances of success.

Morin asserts, “That’s why some people fall for get-rich-quick schemes. The promise of a giant return on their investment deludes them into thinking they’re going to succeed. Because it doesn’t feel scary, they assume it isn’t risky.”

She advised that you have to balance emotion with logic: “you can’t calculate risk based on your level of fear. Instead, it’s important to assess the actual level of risk by examining the facts. Create a list of the pros and cons and the potential risks versus benefits.”

So, calculated risks involve considering the advantages and disadvantages, just as you do when you considering speeding; except, you have to consider it on a much deeper level than we normally would. For example, we tend not to think of getting in an accident as a risk of speeding, when we really should. When calculating a risk, it should be considered from every angle.