Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Peter Turnquest predicted a total economic loss of $1 billion due to the impact of COVID-19 over the next four month period.

Turnquest said his ministry has made that prediction, but said it does not mean that the projections produced are precise and all-encompassing.

The finance minister said the fallout in tourism will have a cascading impact on a number of other sectors within the domestic economy.

“While the total economic impact could be as low as $258 million over the next four months to June 2020, we are inclined to focus on the high impact scenario, which assumes 100 percent loss of cruise visitors and 80 percent of stopover visitors,” Turnquest said.

“In fact, recent developments in the industry would suggest a titling of the possible actual outcome to this extreme scenario, which could result in a total economic loss, including additional public sector spending requirements, of as much as $1 billion. Of this total, a dominant $832 million decline is projected for lost tourism related expenditure as a result of the reduced visitor count.”

In the House of Assembly on Wednesday, Turnquest said the assessment is based on the economic impact of coronavirus on the United States, The Bahamas’ main trading partner.

He adds that financial markets are adversely impacted as investor confidence is shaken and with heightened concerns about disruption in supply chains.

The finance minister contends that the interruptions in the conduct of business suggest that there’s a possibility of a global recession which he said will certainly have implications well into the upcoming fiscal year which begins in July.