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Home » Editorial » In A Time of Testing
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October 30th, 2009

In A Time of Testing

We have on occasion after futile occasion suggested that Bahamians can and should produce more of the food they consume.

We have time and time again proposed that the time is nigh for the Bahamas to so review its immigration policies that labour would be available for such agribusiness.

The time is upon us when more efforts should be made – in partnership with others – to harvest more of the sea’s bounties that are ours for the taking.

There are other possibilities – as in the areas of health and education – where some of the services currently being provided Bahamians could be extended to foreigners, especially Americans.

Those who lead might wish to use a tad more imagination as they seek to chart the way forward for a Bahamas that is today beset with one challenge after the other.

To say that this beloved land of ours is mired in a sea of troubles is today a mere statement of fact regurgitated.

Were we and others to find ourselves in a position where we took such a state as just another statement of fact, we would be most derelict.

These hard times demand that those who lead or those who would lead to find solutions that are feasible and that – as such – would [at minimum] help us to ride out this storm.

This is precisely what the current administration has been doing.

There is also some indication that short-term solutions have had some palliative effect. Here reference can be made to all those schemes and projects – such as street cleaning and the unemployment benefit project – have clearly helped.

These projects – by definition – are predicated on a set of presumptions that seemingly start from a premise or axiom suggesting that things will somehow – and for whatever reason – return to some state of accustomed normalcy.

Apparently, nothing such is in the offing.

Indeed, Moody’s presents a picture that suggests that the rot has set in and that – as such – Bahamians should brace themselves for a fairly long bout of challenge.

As we have already noted, Moody’s indicates that, the economic crisis in the US is a key factor explaining what could turn out to be three years of negative growth for the country. GDP fell 1.7 per cent in 2008 and the IMF is forecasting a 3.9 per cent drop this year and another fall in 2010.

As that rating agency frames the issue, "The impact on the country from the world crisis is likely to be worse than the impact of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 that so directly affected tourism at the time. Still, given its high economic development, social stability and fiscal room to increase borrowing, the country is well positioned to manage the crisis without permanently weakening its creditworthiness."

As Moody’s also suggests, "In the short term The Bahamas’ economic recovery will depend heavily on economic developments in the US, but raising long-term growth rates requires a reversal of the weak performance of the tourist sector and strengthening the regulation of the financial sector…"

According to Moody’s, "Tourist arrivals have been falling since 2005, predating the current crisis.

"In 2008, total arrivals were the lowest in a decade and data for the first half of 2009 indicates that this year will be worse.

"The report also notes that the current account deficit fluctuates between 5 per cent of GDP to 20 per cent of GDP.

"This year, the current account deficit will be around 10 per cent of GDP, below the 13 per cent and 18 per cent posted in 2008 and 2007 respectively. On nominal terms, the current account deficit will shrink to an estimated $0.8 billion from $1.2 billion in 2008 and $1.3 billion in 2007," the report said.

Meantime, Moody’s ranked The Bahamas institutional strength as high, compared to other rated countries. Institutional strength seeks to measure a country’s ability and willingness to pursue and implement policies that support full and timely debt payment.

With this perspective from Moody’s in mind, we would suggest that The Bahamian people – whether they like it or not – will soon find themselves in a situation where they will be obliged to work harder, produce more and otherwise become more enterprising.

They must do so if they hope to survive in these hard times.

Some who are enterprising enough might well wake to find that they are prospering in these times. Such is life in a capitalist-oriented society, where enterprise is both encouraged and rewarded.

In the ultimate analysis, then, Bahamians who wish to make it must – as the saying goes – put on their thinking caps, generate ideas and by whatever means available, put feet on their efforts and see them run.



 
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